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Red40
96829.6
664224.1
1062217.9
Blue36
611315.7
974218.5
46%Model gave it54%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions485201001502004036

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
+4Teleop
+4Endgame
+4Fouls
AutonomousRed +4
6Leave6
2Coral scored#1
10Coral points6
16Total auto12
Teleoperatedlevel
4Coral scored#4
14Coral points16
1Processor algae#0
0Net algae#1
6Processor points0
0Net points4
6Algae points4
20Total teleop20
Reef
3L4#2
2L3#1
0L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
7Game pieces#6
Bargelevel
4Cage & park4
4Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +4
0Foul points0
40Total score36

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
6642
#10
24.10.1
14.914.8
Auto3.9
Teleop18.6
End1.7
red by 5.6
9742
#32
18.50.6
22.822.2
Auto4.7
Teleop11.6
End2.2
Second
17.90.1
15.715.6
Auto4.3
Teleop11.1
End2.5
red by 2.2
6113
#35
15.70.6
12.511.9
Auto3.7
Teleop9.4
End2.6
Third
9682
#33
9.60.1
11.311.2
Auto3.3
Teleop5.8
End0.6
blue by 0.3
9.90.6
9.69.0
Auto3.1
Teleop4.8
End2.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
45%Auto oddsEarned65%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed7%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
8%Barge oddsMissed34%Barge oddsMissed