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Red67
861232.5
861124.7
194013.3
Blue59
1062217.9
917642.5
975422.4
48%Model gave it52%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions7980506070901001106759

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
+10Teleop
+14Endgame
+8Fouls
AutonomousBlue +3
6Leave6
1Coral scored#1
3Coral points6
9Total auto12
TeleoperatedRed +13
12Coral scored#7
42Coral points25
1Processor algae#1
1Net algae#2
6Processor points6
4Net points8
10Algae points14
52Total teleop39
Reef
6L4#3
3L3#3
2L2#1
2L1 · trough#1
15Game pieces#11
BargeRed +4
6Cage & park2
6Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +8
0Foul points6
67Total score59

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
8612
#34
32.50.2
29.329.0
Auto3.7
Teleop24.2
End4.6
blue by 10.0
9176
#11
42.51.2
35.033.8
Auto3.5
Teleop32.4
End6.6
Second
8611
#21
24.70.2
25.925.7
Auto4.4
Teleop18.7
End1.6
red by 2.3
9754
#24
22.41.2
18.417.2
Auto5.5
Teleop14.1
End2.8
Third
1940
#37
13.30.4
15.515.1
Auto3.5
Teleop7.1
End2.7
blue by 4.6
17.91.2
17.216.0
Auto4.3
Teleop11.1
End2.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
52%Auto oddsMissed67%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed8%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
21%Barge oddsMissed43%Barge oddsEarned