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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions6558203040507080901007315

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
0Auto0
+34Teleop
+38Endgame
+58Fouls
Autonomouslevel
3Leave3
0Coral scored#0
0Coral points0
3Total auto3
TeleoperatedRed +34
8Coral scored#1
28Coral points4
1Processor algae#0
2Net algae#1
6Processor points0
8Net points4
14Algae points4
42Total teleop8
Reef
5L4#0
1L3#1
1L2#0
1L1 · trough#0
11Game pieces#2
BargeRed +4
8Cage & park4
8Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +58
20Foul points0
73Total score15

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5144
#18
32.40.6
25.424.8
Auto3.5
Teleop27.3
End1.6
red by 7.6
7656
#10
24.74.5
17.713.3
Auto4.2
Teleop13.7
End6.9
Second
4216
#20
20.40.6
15.615.0
Auto3.0
Teleop15.3
End2.1
red by 6.6
6591
#38
13.84.5
12.78.2
Auto2.7
Teleop11.0
End0.1
Third
5234
#29
18.50.6
15.014.4
Auto5.3
Teleop9.1
End4.0
red by 9.4
9239
#30
9.14.5
19.515.0
Auto2.2
Teleop6.6
End0.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
42%Auto oddsMissed26%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
7%Barge oddsEarned48%Barge oddsMissed