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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions864902040601001201401608344

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+13Auto
+49Teleop
+39Endgame
+39Fouls
AutonomousRed +13
6Leave9
3Coral scored#0
17Coral points1
23Total auto10
TeleoperatedRed +36
8Coral scored#3
30Coral points10
1Processor algae#1
5Net algae#1
6Processor points6
20Net points4
26Algae points10
56Total teleop20
Reef
4L4#1
3L3#1
3L2#1
1L1 · trough#0
17Game pieces#5
BargeBlue +10
4Cage & park14
4Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +39
0Foul points0
83Total score44

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2960
#13
38.41.3
27.729.0
Auto6.1
Teleop26.8
End5.5
red by 17.0
21.48.2
25.917.6
Auto2.7
Teleop15.4
End3.3
Second
7501
#11
37.40.8
30.531.2
Auto5.9
Teleop24.5
End7.0
red by 18.9
8423
#22
18.50.1
18.218.1
Auto4.5
Teleop11.3
End2.6
Third
22.50.8
13.314.0
Auto4.7
Teleop16.4
End1.3
red by 4.3
9703
#33
18.20.1
9.69.5
Auto4.2
Teleop11.3
End2.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
25%Auto oddsEarned54%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
70%Barge oddsMissed24%Barge oddsEarned