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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions72530204060801001201406653

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+9Auto
+17Teleop
+13Endgame
+13Fouls
AutonomousRed +9
0Leave0
4Coral scored#2
18Coral points9
18Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +8
9Coral scored#7
32Coral points24
1Processor algae#1
2Net algae#2
6Processor points6
8Net points8
14Algae points14
46Total teleop38
Reef
6L4#3
3L3#3
3L2#2
1L1 · trough#1
16Game pieces#12
BargeBlue +4
2Cage & park6
2Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +13
0Foul points0
66Total score53

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
9312
#25
24.50.0
24.324.3
Auto6.3
Teleop15.9
End2.3
red by 4.3
9183
#32
20.10.0
18.818.8
Auto4.7
Teleop12.3
End3.1
Second
9210
#15
23.20.0
23.223.2
Auto5.8
Teleop15.2
End2.1
red by 4.7
8423
#22
18.50.0
18.218.2
Auto4.5
Teleop11.3
End2.6
Third
9703
#33
18.20.0
18.218.2
Auto4.2
Teleop11.3
End2.7
red by 2.5
5205
#36
15.70.0
15.715.7
Auto3.2
Teleop10.3
End2.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
73%Auto oddsEarned53%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
21%Barge oddsMissed54%Barge oddsMissed