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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions51132010015020025057127

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+28
Teleop+56
Endgame+70
Fouls+70
AutonomousBlue +28
9Leave3
1Coral scored#8
7Coral points41
16Total auto44
TeleoperatedBlue +28
10Coral scored#15
35Coral points53
0Processor algae#1
1Net algae#2
0Processor points6
4Net points8
4Algae points14
39Total teleop67
Reef
4L4#9
3L3#7
3L2#4
1L1 · trough#3
12Game pieces#26
BargeBlue +14
2Cage & park16
2Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +70
0Foul points0
57Total score127

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
8300
#14
23.70.1
23.623.5
Auto4.1
Teleop18.4
End1.2
blue by 27.5
51.20.9
51.151.9
Auto11.8
Teleop32.0
End7.3
Second
21.40.1
21.521.4
Auto2.7
Teleop15.4
End3.3
blue by 28.2
49.60.9
47.448.2
Auto17.1
Teleop30.7
End1.9
Third
8519
#26
12.80.1
12.812.8
Auto4.9
Teleop6.3
End1.6
blue by 3.1
830
#23
15.90.9
15.716.7
Auto3.7
Teleop10.1
End2.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
47%Auto oddsEarned95%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed6%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
31%Barge oddsMissed38%Barge oddsEarned