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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1386105010015020012886

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+17Auto
+68Teleop
+60Endgame
+42Fouls
AutonomousRed +17
0Leave3
5Coral scored#1
23Coral points3
23Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +51
21Coral scored#9
75Coral points34
2Processor algae#1
3Net algae#2
12Processor points6
12Net points8
24Algae points14
99Total teleop48
Reef
7L4#4
11L3#3
4L2#1
4L1 · trough#2
31Game pieces#13
BargeBlue +8
6Cage & park14
6Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +42
0Foul points18
128Total score86

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
58.10.9
57.958.9
Auto10.4
Teleop37.8
End9.9
red by 20.7
7501
#11
37.40.6
36.637.2
Auto5.9
Teleop24.5
End7.0
Second
47.30.9
43.344.2
Auto10.0
Teleop36.5
End0.9
red by 32.5
7597
#35
14.80.6
14.214.8
Auto3.0
Teleop9.2
End2.5
Third
6591
#38
13.81.0
12.813.8
Auto2.7
Teleop11.0
End0.1
red by 4.7
9239
#30
9.10.6
8.49.1
Auto2.2
Teleop6.6
End0.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
91%Auto oddsEarned42%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
11%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
65%Barge oddsMissed40%Barge oddsEarned