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Red147
191869.7
71556.1
376767.1
Blue118
439860.7
365840.3
52609.7
84%Model gave it16%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions16611150150200250147118

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+18Auto
+1Teleop
+23Endgame
+29Fouls
AutonomousRed +18
3Leave6
5Coral scored#1
27Coral points6
30Total auto12
TeleoperatedBlue +17
14Coral scored#19
51Coral points70
3Processor algae#2
4Net algae#5
18Processor points12
16Net points20
34Algae points32
85Total teleop102
Reef
6L4#6
4L3#8
4L2#3
5L1 · trough#3
26Game pieces#27
BargeRed +22
26Cage & park4
26Total endgame4
Penalties & totalRed +29
6Foul points0
147Total score118

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
69.70.0
69.869.7
Auto12.0
Teleop46.4
End11.3
red by 9.0
4398
#10
60.70.2
60.160.3
Auto8.2
Teleop51.7
End0.8
Second
67.10.0
67.267.1
Auto18.3
Teleop40.9
End8.0
red by 26.8
40.30.2
39.739.9
Auto5.4
Teleop34.0
End0.9
Third
7155
#22
6.10.0
6.16.1
Auto3.4
Teleop1.8
End0.8
blue by 3.6
5260
#17
9.70.2
9.19.3
Auto0.8
Teleop8.5
End0.4