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Red124
661837.6
22650.9
148134.1
Blue98
283432.5
719633.3
81521.8
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1499405020025012498

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+28Auto
+36Teleop
+26Endgame
+26Fouls
AutonomousRed +28
9Leave3
7Coral scored#3
35Coral points13
44Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +8
14Coral scored#12
50Coral points44
2Processor algae#1
3Net algae#4
12Processor points6
12Net points16
24Algae points22
74Total teleop66
Reef
7L4#6
6L3#4
5L2#2
3L1 · trough#3
26Game pieces#20
BargeBlue +10
6Cage & park16
6Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +26
0Foul points0
124Total score98

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
226
#3
50.90.4
58.057.6
Auto15.1
Teleop27.9
End7.8
red by 17.5
7196
#17
33.30.6
23.824.4
Auto8.1
Teleop18.9
End6.3
Second
6618
#28
37.60.4
35.735.4
Auto9.1
Teleop25.1
End3.4
red by 5.1
2834
#32
32.50.6
40.641.2
Auto6.3
Teleop20.3
End5.9
Third
1481
#18
34.10.4
35.935.5
Auto11.1
Teleop18.6
End4.4
red by 12.3
815
#31
21.80.6
24.925.5
Auto5.7
Teleop14.8
End1.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
93%Auto oddsEarned88%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
23%Coral oddsMissed10%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
66%Barge oddsMissed52%Barge oddsEarned