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Red155
719633.3
432726.0
86253.4
Blue40
842310.4
54833.6
553027.4
70%Model gave it30%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions11210140608012014015540

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+18Auto
+83Teleop
+107Endgame
+115Fouls
AutonomousRed +18
3Leave3
7Coral scored#3
34Coral points16
37Total auto19
TeleoperatedRed +65
12Coral scored#4
42Coral points13
3Processor algae#1
6Net algae#0
18Processor points6
24Net points0
42Algae points6
84Total teleop19
Reef
5L4#1
7L3#3
5L2#2
2L1 · trough#1
28Game pieces#8
BargeRed +24
26Cage & park2
26Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +115
8Foul points0
155Total score40

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
862
#7
53.43.3
50.453.7
Auto16.4
Teleop28.7
End8.3
red by 19.7
548
#20
33.63.2
38.435.3
Auto7.7
Teleop22.5
End3.4
Second
7196
#17
33.33.3
24.427.7
Auto8.1
Teleop18.9
End6.3
red by 6.0
5530
#16
27.43.2
32.529.4
Auto5.7
Teleop18.7
End3.0
Third
4327
#22
26.03.3
22.625.9
Auto6.5
Teleop15.8
End3.8
red by 15.7
8423
#34
10.43.2
16.513.3
Auto4.6
Teleop3.8
End1.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
92%Auto oddsEarned91%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
7%Coral oddsEarned10%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
64%Barge oddsEarned57%Barge oddsMissed