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Red115
842412.1
148134.1
360457.6
Blue104
283260.1
664214.2
353851.0
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1611270100200300400500115104

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+7
+1Teleop
+11Endgame
+11Fouls
AutonomousBlue +7
0Leave6
5Coral scored#5
23Coral points24
23Total auto30
TeleoperatedRed +8
16Coral scored#16
56Coral points58
2Processor algae#1
2Net algae#1
12Processor points6
8Net points4
20Algae points10
76Total teleop68
Reef
10L4#8
4L3#5
5L2#4
2L1 · trough#4
25Game pieces#23
BargeRed +10
16Cage & park6
16Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +11
0Foul points0
115Total score104

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
57.61.8
70.568.7
Auto11.8
Teleop37.5
End8.3
blue by 2.5
60.11.0
55.854.8
Auto13.1
Teleop38.7
End8.4
Second
1481
#18
34.11.8
46.244.5
Auto11.1
Teleop18.6
End4.4
blue by 16.8
3538
#19
51.01.0
44.643.7
Auto16.7
Teleop32.6
End1.7
Third
8424
#38
12.11.8
25.023.2
Auto3.4
Teleop6.7
End2.0
blue by 2.1
6642
#27
14.21.0
17.916.9
Auto3.3
Teleop10.4
End0.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
89%Auto oddsEarned93%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
25%Coral oddsMissed14%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
59%Barge oddsEarned22%Barge oddsMissed