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Red119
945510.8
285137.9
341447.9
Blue73
965112.7
836219.5
852231.3
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions85600204010012014016011973

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+13Auto
+48Teleop
+52Endgame
+46Fouls
AutonomousRed +13
9Leave6
2Coral scored#0
10Coral points0
19Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +35
14Coral scored#13
50Coral points45
4Processor algae#1
5Net algae#2
24Processor points6
20Net points8
44Algae points14
94Total teleop59
Reef
6L4#6
4L3#2
3L2#3
3L1 · trough#2
25Game pieces#16
BargeRed +4
6Cage & park2
6Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +46
0Foul points6
119Total score73

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
47.92.6
42.044.6
Auto12.1
Teleop30.7
End5.0
red by 16.6
8522
#31
31.30.3
30.731.0
Auto5.4
Teleop23.6
End2.3
Second
2851
#11
37.92.6
24.126.7
Auto5.3
Teleop30.3
End2.3
red by 18.5
8362
#21
19.50.5
14.014.5
Auto6.3
Teleop11.9
End1.2
Third
9455
#35
10.82.6
8.210.8
Auto3.4
Teleop5.8
End1.7
blue by 1.9
9651
#32
12.70.3
12.012.4
Auto3.0
Teleop9.1
End0.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
53%Auto oddsEarned70%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
26%Barge oddsMissed10%Barge oddsMissed