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Red58
285137.9
71917.1
125029.4
Blue69
605715.4
602924.0
476816.2
35%Model gave it65%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions475902040801001201405869

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+4
+5Teleop
Endgame+11
Fouls+11
AutonomousBlue +4
9Leave3
0Coral scored#2
0Coral points10
9Total auto13
TeleoperatedRed +9
9Coral scored#6
31Coral points22
1Processor algae#1
2Net algae#2
6Processor points6
8Net points8
14Algae points14
45Total teleop36
Reef
5L4#3
2L3#2
1L2#2
1L1 · trough#1
12Game pieces#11
BargeBlue +16
4Cage & park20
4Total endgame20
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +11
0Foul points0
58Total score69

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2851
#11
37.90.5
16.917.5
Auto5.3
Teleop30.3
End2.3
red by 13.9
6029
#24
24.00.8
19.620.4
Auto5.0
Teleop10.2
End8.8
Second
1250
#25
29.40.5
23.223.7
Auto5.2
Teleop20.7
End3.4
red by 13.2
4768
#28
16.21.4
18.920.3
Auto4.1
Teleop9.6
End2.5
Third
7191
#36
7.10.5
4.75.2
Auto0.2
Teleop6.1
End0.7
blue by 8.3
6057
#18
15.40.8
12.213.0
Auto2.1
Teleop8.8
End4.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
44%Auto oddsMissed35%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
22%Barge oddsMissed79%Barge oddsEarned