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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions177120100150200250159153

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+10Auto
+8Teleop
+6Endgame
+6Fouls
AutonomousRed +10
0Leave6
7Coral scored#4
37Coral points21
37Total auto27
TeleoperatedBlue +2
24Coral scored#24
88Coral points88
2Processor algae#1
2Net algae#4
12Processor points6
8Net points16
20Algae points22
108Total teleop110
Reef
13L4#12
7L3#8
4L2#4
7L1 · trough#4
35Game pieces#33
BargeBlue +2
14Cage & park16
14Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +6
0Foul points0
159Total score153

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
77.61.6
71.269.6
Auto24.2
Teleop44.0
End9.3
red by 8.0
3539
#13
69.50.8
60.461.2
Auto21.2
Teleop40.3
End8.0
Second
2145
#22
59.91.6
48.546.9
Auto18.0
Teleop37.0
End4.9
red by 10.7
4003
#29
49.30.8
33.934.7
Auto8.2
Teleop36.5
End4.5
Third
66
#40
36.51.6
37.335.7
Auto6.0
Teleop26.1
End4.3
red by 10.3
4453
#35
26.20.8
22.923.7
Auto6.9
Teleop15.0
End4.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
99%Auto oddsEarned95%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
35%Coral oddsMissed31%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
67%Barge oddsEarned70%Barge oddsEarned