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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions159146100120180200220240225113

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+42Auto
+96Teleop
+100Endgame
+112Fouls
AutonomousRed +42
0Leave3
12Coral scored#3
58Coral points13
58Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +54
21Coral scored#16
77Coral points59
3Processor algae#1
9Net algae#3
18Processor points6
36Net points12
54Algae points18
131Total teleop77
Reef
9L4#6
9L3#6
10L2#3
5L1 · trough#4
45Game pieces#23
BargeRed +4
24Cage & park20
24Total endgame20
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +112
12Foul points0
225Total score113

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2611
#27
64.73.9
49.653.5
Auto17.7
Teleop43.5
End3.4
red by 9.2
3655
#15
55.52.2
54.552.2
Auto13.2
Teleop33.1
End9.1
Second
3414
#19
61.83.9
47.951.8
Auto14.8
Teleop40.8
End6.3
red by 11.0
50.82.2
44.242.0
Auto11.5
Teleop30.0
End9.4
Third
4422
#17
55.43.9
45.849.7
Auto12.4
Teleop32.3
End10.7
red by 19.4
8517
#33
36.02.2
36.734.4
Auto8.1
Teleop25.6
End2.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
98%Auto oddsEarned97%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
11%Coral oddsEarned14%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
76%Barge oddsEarned89%Barge oddsEarned