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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions147176100200250138156

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
Teleop+20
Endgame+18
Fouls+18
AutonomousRed +7
3Leave9
5Coral scored#3
27Coral points14
30Total auto23
TeleoperatedBlue +27
16Coral scored#21
58Coral points77
3Processor algae#3
4Net algae#6
18Processor points18
16Net points24
34Algae points42
92Total teleop119
Reef
6L4#7
6L3#8
3L2#5
6L1 · trough#4
28Game pieces#33
BargeRed +2
16Cage & park14
16Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +18
0Foul points0
138Total score156

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5530
#32
54.00.2
52.352.1
Auto14.6
Teleop33.6
End5.8
blue by 14.2
70
#16
68.20.2
65.064.8
Auto15.4
Teleop41.9
End10.8
Second
4003
#29
49.30.2
47.146.9
Auto8.2
Teleop36.5
End4.5
blue by 15.4
2611
#27
64.70.2
61.461.2
Auto17.7
Teleop43.5
End3.4
Third
5509
#14
48.20.2
42.041.8
Auto8.6
Teleop29.6
End10.0
red by 12.2
8517
#33
36.00.2
32.632.4
Auto8.1
Teleop25.6
End2.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
97%Auto oddsEarned99%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
35%Coral oddsMissed46%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
79%Barge oddsEarned69%Barge oddsEarned