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Qual 392025 FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Hemlock Semiconductor Division
Red220
716670.7
168448.7
686140.0
Blue164
360340.8
571265.9
550561.0
45%Model gave it55%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions156161100200250220164

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
+56Teleop
+56Endgame
+56Fouls
AutonomousRed +4
6Leave6
8Coral scored#7
38Coral points34
44Total auto40
TeleoperatedRed +52
28Coral scored#17
102Coral points62
3Processor algae#1
5Net algae#5
18Processor points6
20Net points20
38Algae points26
140Total teleop88
Reef
14L4#10
10L3#4
4L2#6
8L1 · trough#4
44Game pieces#30
Bargelevel
36Cage & park36
36Total endgame36
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +56
0Foul points0
220Total score164

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
7166
#5
70.74.5
61.8→66.3
Auto15.6
Teleop45.4
End9.7
red by 4.9
5712
#3
65.90.5
58.0→58.5
Auto12.5
Teleop42.6
End10.7
Second
1684
#29
48.74.5
40.5→45.0
Auto9.9
Teleop32.6
End6.3
blue by 12.2
5505
#16
61.00.5
54.2→54.7
Auto13.0
Teleop36.0
End12.0
Third
6861
#37
40.04.5
39.2→43.6
Auto6.5
Teleop26.8
End6.7
blue by 0.8
3603
#33
40.80.5
33.4→33.9
Auto6.7
Teleop26.2
End7.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
82%Auto oddsEarned84%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
66%Coral oddsEarned41%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
86%Barge oddsEarned84%Barge oddsEarned