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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions213155100200250300183154

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
+43Teleop
+31Endgame
+29Fouls
AutonomousRed +21
6Leave0
10Coral scored#7
52Coral points37
58Total auto37
TeleoperatedRed +22
19Coral scored#20
67Coral points73
3Processor algae#1
9Net algae#5
18Processor points6
36Net points20
54Algae points26
121Total teleop99
Reef
9L4#8
9L3#6
8L2#6
3L1 · trough#7
41Game pieces#33
BargeBlue +12
4Cage & park16
4Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +29
0Foul points2
183Total score154

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
68.81.0
62.461.5
Auto16.2
Teleop44.5
End8.1
red by 13.7
1506
#17
55.10.2
55.655.4
Auto13.0
Teleop33.6
End8.6
Second
64.71.0
68.767.7
Auto14.4
Teleop48.0
End2.4
red by 12.3
3357
#22
52.40.2
49.048.8
Auto8.7
Teleop39.0
End4.7
Third
5114
#15
62.21.0
58.157.1
Auto18.8
Teleop34.8
End8.6
red by 15.2
5436
#32
46.90.2
42.242.0
Auto11.0
Teleop27.4
End8.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
95%Auto oddsEarned96%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
88%Coral oddsEarned32%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
91%Barge oddsMissed95%Barge oddsEarned