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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions15716150100200250163151

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+1Auto
+2Teleop
+12Endgame
+12Fouls
AutonomousRed +1
0Leave0
5Coral scored#5
27Coral points26
27Total auto26
TeleoperatedRed +1
22Coral scored#25
78Coral points89
3Processor algae#1
4Net algae#4
18Processor points6
16Net points16
34Algae points22
112Total teleop111
Reef
6L4#14
9L3#9
7L2#4
5L1 · trough#3
34Game pieces#35
BargeRed +10
24Cage & park14
24Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +12
0Foul points0
163Total score151

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
68.81.0
65.466.3
Auto16.2
Teleop44.5
End8.1
red by 15.0
3546
#24
53.90.2
51.551.3
Auto14.0
Teleop36.5
End3.3
Second
5695
#36
37.71.0
36.737.7
Auto7.3
Teleop26.1
End4.3
blue by 11.0
1684
#29
48.70.2
48.348.1
Auto9.9
Teleop32.6
End6.3
Third
6033
#18
36.41.0
35.436.4
Auto5.8
Teleop21.3
End9.3
blue by 6.4
5534
#39
42.70.2
42.942.7
Auto5.7
Teleop30.9
End6.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
94%Auto oddsMissed87%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
61%Coral oddsEarned78%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
88%Barge oddsEarned50%Barge oddsEarned