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Qual 312025 FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Consumers Energy Division
Red154
102359.4
357262.7
722043.6
Blue132
955845.5
750149.9
496759.9
58%Model gave it42%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions17316350100150200250154132

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+29Auto
+44Teleop
+22Endgame
+22Fouls
AutonomousRed +29
0Leave9
10Coral scored#2
48Coral points10
48Total auto19
TeleoperatedRed +15
22Coral scored#20
78Coral points71
2Processor algae#2
3Net algae#1
12Processor points12
12Net points4
24Algae points16
102Total teleop87
Reef
9L4#9
9L3#4
10L2#7
4L1 · trough#2
37Game pieces#25
BargeBlue +22
4Cage & park26
4Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +22
0Foul points0
154Total score132

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3572
#17
62.70.3
60.5→60.7
Auto20.3
Teleop33.9
End8.4
red by 2.7
4967
#16
59.90.7
58.7→58.1
Auto11.7
Teleop40.6
End7.6
Second
1023
#10
59.40.3
48.7→49.0
Auto14.1
Teleop38.9
End6.4
red by 9.5
7501
#23
49.90.7
39.8→39.1
Auto8.5
Teleop32.1
End9.3
Third
7220
#31
43.60.3
40.5→40.8
Auto8.6
Teleop30.9
End4.2
blue by 1.9
9558
#28
45.50.7
43.3→42.7
Auto7.5
Teleop30.1
End7.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
98%Auto oddsMissed94%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
15%Coral oddsMissed23%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
88%Barge oddsMissed94%Barge oddsEarned