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Red171
924570.7
438145.9
516659.2
Blue111
118849.5
535256.3
376763.0
55%Model gave it45%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions165156050100200250300350171111

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+9Auto
+58Teleop
+56Endgame
+60Fouls
AutonomousRed +9
3Leave9
9Coral scored#6
43Coral points28
46Total auto37
TeleoperatedRed +49
19Coral scored#10
67Coral points36
2Processor algae#1
4Net algae#1
12Processor points6
16Net points4
28Algae points10
95Total teleop46
Reef
9L4#6
7L3#4
7L2#2
5L1 · trough#4
34Game pieces#18
BargeBlue +2
24Cage & park26
24Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +60
6Foul points2
171Total score111

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
70.70.5
59.159.6
Auto15.2
Teleop49.5
End5.9
red by 7.6
63.02.9
56.353.4
Auto14.3
Teleop40.7
End8.0
Second
59.20.5
56.056.5
Auto10.6
Teleop37.8
End10.8
red by 2.8
5352
#11
56.32.9
52.749.8
Auto14.6
Teleop32.9
End8.8
Third
45.90.5
41.842.3
Auto15.1
Teleop22.9
End7.8
blue by 3.6
1188
#36
49.52.9
43.040.1
Auto14.4
Teleop29.3
End5.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
97%Auto oddsEarned98%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
16%Coral oddsMissed42%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
97%Barge oddsEarned93%Barge oddsEarned