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Red219
353660.4
1066647.2
750149.9
Blue234
150244.6
258651.2
955845.5
83%Model gave it17%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions180148100200250219234

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+7
Teleop+25
Endgame+15
Fouls+15
AutonomousBlue +7
6Leave0
5Coral scored#7
23Coral points36
29Total auto36
TeleoperatedBlue +18
31Coral scored#31
112Coral points112
5Processor algae#8
6Net algae#6
30Processor points48
24Net points24
54Algae points72
166Total teleop184
Reef
14L4#19
11L3#6
7L2#6
4L1 · trough#7
47Game pieces#52
BargeRed +10
24Cage & park14
24Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +15
0Foul points0
219Total score234

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3536
#13
60.41.7
62.564.3
Auto15.3
Teleop35.8
End9.3
red by 9.2
2586
#27
51.24.4
44.248.6
Auto13.8
Teleop34.0
End3.4
Second
7501
#23
49.91.7
39.140.8
Auto8.5
Teleop32.1
End9.3
red by 4.4
9558
#28
45.54.4
42.747.1
Auto7.5
Teleop30.1
End7.9
Third
47.21.7
43.445.1
Auto9.1
Teleop33.2
End4.9
red by 2.6
1502
#24
44.64.4
35.740.2
Auto11.4
Teleop31.4
End1.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
80%Auto oddsEarned96%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
19%Coral oddsMissed11%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
95%Barge oddsEarned60%Barge oddsEarned