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Red221
477665.1
654855.7
765646.8
Blue221
705657.9
362068.9
353730.8
65%Model gave it35%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions177167140160200220240221221

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
0Teleop0
0Endgame0
0Fouls0
AutonomousRed +4
0Leave0
10Coral scored#9
51Coral points47
51Total auto47
TeleoperatedBlue +4
25Coral scored#27
90Coral points98
3Processor algae#3
9Net algae#8
18Processor points18
36Net points32
54Algae points50
144Total teleop148
Reef
14L4#15
9L3#6
6L2#9
6L1 · trough#6
47Game pieces#47
Bargelevel
26Cage & park26
26Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totallevel
0Foul points0
221Total score221

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
65.1
Auto14.5
Teleop40.9
End9.8
blue by 3.7
68.9
Auto22.0
Teleop37.9
End9.0
Second
55.7
Auto13.6
Teleop39.0
End3.1
blue by 2.2
57.9
Auto10.5
Teleop38.7
End8.7
Third
7656
#26
46.8
Auto7.7
Teleop28.4
End10.8
red by 16.0
3537
#40
30.8
Auto5.7
Teleop22.7
End2.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
94%Auto oddsEarned96%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
34%Coral oddsMissed60%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
94%Barge oddsEarned93%Barge oddsEarned