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Red228
376763.0
765646.8
924570.7
Blue205
357262.7
437539.9
1066647.2
73%Model gave it27%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions199169100150250300228205

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+9Auto
+15Teleop
+23Endgame
+23Fouls
AutonomousRed +9
0Leave0
8Coral scored#7
42Coral points33
42Total auto33
TeleoperatedRed +6
32Coral scored#37
116Coral points132
3Processor algae#2
7Net algae#3
18Processor points12
28Net points12
46Algae points24
162Total teleop156
Reef
17L4#14
10L3#11
7L2#9
6L1 · trough#10
50Game pieces#49
BargeRed +8
24Cage & park16
24Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +23
0Foul points0
228Total score205

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
70.71.7
69.771.5
Auto15.2
Teleop49.5
End5.9
red by 8.0
3572
#17
62.71.9
60.862.7
Auto20.3
Teleop33.9
End8.4
Second
63.01.7
57.359.0
Auto14.3
Teleop40.7
End8.0
red by 15.8
47.21.9
46.248.2
Auto9.1
Teleop33.2
End4.9
Third
7656
#26
46.81.7
45.246.9
Auto7.7
Teleop28.4
End10.8
red by 6.9
4375
#39
39.91.9
37.038.9
Auto8.2
Teleop29.4
End2.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
96%Auto oddsEarned87%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
55%Coral oddsEarned42%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
96%Barge oddsEarned82%Barge oddsEarned