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Red170
258651.2
516659.2
357262.7
Blue173
362068.9
546070.4
296052.7
21%Model gave it79%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions177206150250170173

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
Teleop+7
+3Endgame
Fouls+3
AutonomousRed +4
0Leave6
9Coral scored#7
44Coral points34
44Total auto40
TeleoperatedBlue +11
20Coral scored#20
72Coral points73
2Processor algae#3
4Net algae#5
12Processor points18
16Net points20
28Algae points38
100Total teleop111
Reef
11L4#14
9L3#7
5L2#4
4L1 · trough#2
35Game pieces#35
BargeRed +10
26Cage & park16
26Total endgame16
Penalties & totalBlue +3
0Foul points6
170Total score173

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3572
#17
62.70.0
62.262.1
Auto20.3
Teleop33.9
End8.4
blue by 7.8
70.40.6
71.270.6
Auto22.0
Teleop44.3
End4.2
Second
59.20.0
58.758.6
Auto10.6
Teleop37.8
End10.8
blue by 9.7
68.90.6
69.669.0
Auto22.0
Teleop37.9
End9.0
Third
2586
#27
51.20.0
50.750.7
Auto13.8
Teleop34.0
End3.4
blue by 1.4
2960
#15
52.70.6
53.452.8
Auto9.0
Teleop34.7
End9.0