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Red159
360462.2
207572.0
515029.5
Blue167
663747.7
86273.0
423760.9
28%Model gave it72%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions171194100150250159167

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+11Auto
+12Teleop
Endgame+8
Fouls+8
AutonomousRed +11
9Leave3
4Coral scored#3
21Coral points16
30Total auto19
TeleoperatedRed +1
25Coral scored#22
89Coral points80
2Processor algae#4
6Net algae#5
12Processor points24
24Net points20
36Algae points44
125Total teleop124
Reef
11L4#8
9L3#9
6L2#5
3L1 · trough#3
37Game pieces#34
BargeBlue +20
4Cage & park24
4Total endgame24
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +8
0Foul points0
159Total score167

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
72.00.7
69.468.7
Auto17.3
Teleop44.8
End9.8
blue by 1.0
862
#10
73.01.8
75.573.7
Auto15.8
Teleop45.6
End11.6
Second
3604
#12
62.20.7
55.254.5
Auto13.5
Teleop43.7
End5.0
red by 1.3
4237
#13
60.91.8
52.550.7
Auto14.9
Teleop41.5
End4.4
Third
5150
#32
29.50.7
29.028.2
Auto7.4
Teleop20.6
End1.5
blue by 18.2
6637
#35
47.71.8
48.346.5
Auto13.4
Teleop32.0
End2.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
95%Auto oddsEarned93%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
75%Coral oddsMissed88%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
90%Barge oddsMissed82%Barge oddsEarned