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Qual 412025 FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Aptiv Division
Red164
663747.7
10739.2
107665.3
Blue219
317573.1
566052.0
661564.7
11%Model gave it89%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions155202100250164219

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
Teleop+31
Endgame+55
Fouls+55
AutonomousRed +3
0Leave6
8Coral scored#6
40Coral points31
40Total auto37
TeleoperatedBlue +34
24Coral scored#33
86Coral points120
3Processor algae#3
5Net algae#5
18Processor points18
20Net points20
38Algae points38
124Total teleop158
Reef
10L4#19
11L3#9
6L2#7
5L1 · trough#4
40Game pieces#47
BargeBlue +24
0Cage & park24
0Total endgame24
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +55
0Foul points0
164Total score219

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1076
#19
65.30.5
58.6→59.1
Auto16.8
Teleop45.2
End3.4
blue by 7.8
3175
#22
73.11.5
67.1→68.6
Auto17.5
Teleop47.2
End8.4
Second
6637
#35
47.70.5
46.5→47.1
Auto13.4
Teleop32.0
End2.3
blue by 17.0
6615
#15
64.71.5
61.8→63.3
Auto13.2
Teleop49.7
End1.7
Third
107
#34
39.20.5
36.7→37.2
Auto8.1
Teleop29.7
End1.3
blue by 12.8
5660
#17
52.01.5
53.6→55.1
Auto11.6
Teleop34.1
End6.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
95%Auto oddsEarned93%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
79%Coral oddsEarned82%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
38%Barge oddsMissed64%Barge oddsEarned