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Red221
521673.8
634434.2
515249.7
Blue236
779054.2
317573.1
440560.6
20%Model gave it80%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions169204150250300221236

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+18
Teleop+5
Endgame+17
Fouls+15
AutonomousBlue +18
9Leave3
5Coral scored#10
24Coral points48
33Total auto51
TeleoperatedRed +13
26Coral scored#33
92Coral points117
7Processor algae#2
7Net algae#5
42Processor points12
28Net points20
70Algae points32
162Total teleop149
Reef
9L4#20
10L3#9
7L2#7
5L1 · trough#7
45Game pieces#50
BargeBlue +12
24Cage & park36
24Total endgame36
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +15
2Foul points0
221Total score236

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5216
#25
73.82.8
70.072.7
Auto19.8
Teleop49.4
End4.7
red by 0.7
3175
#22
73.12.0
69.371.3
Auto17.5
Teleop47.2
End8.4
Second
5152
#27
49.72.8
46.949.7
Auto7.7
Teleop33.1
End8.9
blue by 10.9
4405
#18
60.62.0
58.260.1
Auto15.6
Teleop35.8
End9.1
Third
6344
#28
34.22.8
31.434.2
Auto7.6
Teleop16.6
End9.9
blue by 20.1
7790
#16
54.22.0
52.454.3
Auto9.2
Teleop38.1
End6.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
88%Auto oddsEarned98%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
82%Coral oddsEarned74%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
92%Barge oddsEarned96%Barge oddsEarned