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Red166
515249.7
779054.2
506651.2
Blue108
437727.4
519348.6
634434.2
90%Model gave it10%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1419550150200166108

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+28Auto
+68Teleop
+58Endgame
+58Fouls
AutonomousRed +28
0Leave3
7Coral scored#1
37Coral points6
37Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +40
20Coral scored#15
73Coral points53
3Processor algae#1
6Net algae#4
18Processor points6
24Net points16
42Algae points22
115Total teleop75
Reef
12L4#4
7L3#6
3L2#3
5L1 · trough#3
36Game pieces#21
BargeBlue +10
14Cage & park24
14Total endgame24
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +58
0Foul points0
166Total score108

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
7790
#16
54.21.6
40.942.6
Auto9.2
Teleop38.1
End6.9
red by 5.6
5193
#29
48.60.1
40.840.7
Auto8.9
Teleop33.1
End6.6
Second
5066
#24
51.21.6
39.441.1
Auto15.8
Teleop33.7
End1.7
red by 17.1
6344
#28
34.20.1
24.924.8
Auto7.6
Teleop16.6
End9.9
Third
5152
#27
49.71.6
42.944.5
Auto7.7
Teleop33.1
End8.9
red by 22.3
4377
#39
27.40.1
23.123.0
Auto4.1
Teleop22.1
End1.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
87%Auto oddsEarned43%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
17%Coral oddsEarned7%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
89%Barge oddsEarned72%Barge oddsEarned