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Red212
86273.0
170172.0
440560.6
Blue233
49471.4
5150.4
317573.1
64%Model gave it36%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions224207100150250300212233

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+7
Teleop+11
Endgame+21
Fouls+21
AutonomousBlue +7
3Leave0
7Coral scored#9
34Coral points44
37Total auto44
TeleoperatedBlue +4
28Coral scored#29
99Coral points105
3Processor algae#4
8Net algae#6
18Processor points24
32Net points24
50Algae points48
149Total teleop153
Reef
11L4#18
11L3#10
7L2#6
6L1 · trough#4
46Game pieces#48
BargeBlue +10
26Cage & park36
26Total endgame36
Penalties & totalBlue +21
0Foul points0
212Total score233

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
862
#10
73.00.1
72.973.0
Auto15.8
Teleop45.6
End11.6
blue by 0.1
3175
#22
73.10.9
71.972.7
Auto17.5
Teleop47.2
End8.4
Second
72.00.1
71.972.0
Auto21.0
Teleop43.4
End7.6
red by 0.6
494
#4
71.40.9
70.171.0
Auto14.7
Teleop45.7
End11.0
Third
4405
#18
60.60.1
60.560.6
Auto15.6
Teleop35.8
End9.1
red by 10.2
51
#14
50.40.9
49.250.0
Auto9.7
Teleop31.7
End9.0