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Red53
12327.8
557725.6
97518.8
Blue15
47588.6
468026.7
835219.2
40%Model gave it60%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions62750501001505315

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+32Teleop
+32Endgame
+38Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
3Leave0
3Coral scored#2
13Coral points9
16Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +25
6Coral scored#1
23Coral points4
1Processor algae#0
0Net algae#0
6Processor points0
0Net points0
6Algae points0
29Total teleop4
Reef
3L4#1
3L3#1
2L2#1
1L1 · trough#0
10Game pieces#3
Bargelevel
2Cage & park2
2Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +38
6Foul points0
53Total score15

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
123
#2
27.80.9
25.724.8
Auto8.3
Teleop18.9
End0.6
red by 1.1
4680
#12
26.73.7
33.529.8
Auto6.5
Teleop17.0
End3.1
Second
25.60.9
26.625.7
Auto6.5
Teleop17.6
End1.5
red by 6.4
8352
#16
19.23.7
26.322.6
Auto4.2
Teleop13.8
End1.3
Third
9751
#18
8.80.9
8.37.4
Auto3.0
Teleop3.9
End2.0
red by 0.2
4758
#19
8.63.7
10.77.0
Auto2.8
Teleop4.4
End1.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
78%Auto oddsEarned42%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
7%Coral oddsMissed17%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
32%Barge oddsMissed37%Barge oddsMissed