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Red129
1057715.5
170179.9
309629.2
Blue38
999112.3
363213.8
661623.3
99%Model gave it1%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions14741010020025012938

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+17Auto
+83Teleop
+91Endgame
+91Fouls
AutonomousRed +17
9Leave9
3Coral scored#0
17Coral points0
26Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +66
16Coral scored#4
57Coral points15
2Processor algae#0
5Net algae#2
12Processor points0
20Net points8
32Algae points8
89Total teleop23
Reef
7L4#1
5L3#1
5L2#1
2L1 · trough#1
26Game pieces#6
BargeRed +8
14Cage & park6
14Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +91
0Foul points0
129Total score38

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
79.90.5
78.579.1
Auto23.6
Teleop46.9
End9.4
red by 56.6
23.31.0
21.120.1
Auto3.9
Teleop18.2
End1.3
Second
29.20.5
28.228.8
Auto3.6
Teleop24.5
End1.0
red by 15.4
3632
#17
13.81.0
17.116.2
Auto3.0
Teleop9.8
End1.1
Third
15.50.5
14.214.7
Auto4.2
Teleop9.0
End2.3
red by 3.2
9991
#15
12.31.4
14.212.8
Auto2.3
Teleop8.0
End1.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
87%Auto oddsEarned26%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
19%Coral oddsEarned1%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
31%Barge oddsEarned24%Barge oddsMissed