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Red46
97518.8
557725.6
661623.3
Blue32
609917.2
60962.3
786515.9
64%Model gave it36%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions573401001502004632

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+6Teleop
+8Endgame
+14Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
0Leave3
4Coral scored#2
19Coral points9
19Total auto12
TeleoperatedBlue +1
3Coral scored#3
9Coral points10
1Processor algae#1
0Net algae#0
6Processor points6
0Net points0
6Algae points6
15Total teleop16
Reef
2L4#2
2L3#1
2L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
8Game pieces#6
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Penalties & totalRed +14
6Foul points0
46Total score32

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
25.60.2
23.323.0
Auto6.5
Teleop17.6
End1.5
red by 8.4
17.20.1
17.417.3
Auto6.9
Teleop8.8
End1.5
Second
23.30.2
21.020.7
Auto3.9
Teleop18.2
End1.3
red by 7.4
7865
#11
15.90.1
16.015.9
Auto4.7
Teleop9.3
End1.9
Third
9751
#18
8.80.2
6.56.2
Auto3.0
Teleop3.9
End2.0
red by 6.5
6096
#20
2.30.1
2.52.4
Auto1.2
Teleop0.4
End0.7