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Red39
475816.2
771622.2
485414.9
Blue40
553219.1
20487.3
714517.9
52%Model gave it48%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions3838102030506070803940

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
+1Teleop
Endgame+1
Fouls+1
AutonomousBlue +3
9Leave9
0Coral scored#1
0Coral points3
9Total auto12
TeleoperatedRed +4
4Coral scored#4
16Coral points14
1Processor algae#0
1Net algae#2
6Processor points0
4Net points8
10Algae points8
26Total teleop22
Reef
1L4#2
1L3#2
1L2#1
1L1 · trough#0
6Game pieces#7
BargeBlue +2
4Cage & park6
4Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +1
0Foul points0
39Total score40

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
7716
#32
22.20.0
17.517.5
Auto4.3
Teleop16.5
End1.3
red by 3.0
5532
#10
19.10.5
13.413.8
Auto4.7
Teleop12.8
End1.6
Second
4758
#26
16.20.0
10.110.1
Auto3.2
Teleop10.9
End2.1
blue by 1.6
7145
#22
17.90.5
8.89.3
Auto2.2
Teleop12.5
End3.2
Third
4854
#34
14.90.0
8.98.9
Auto4.4
Teleop9.2
End1.3
red by 7.6
2048
#13
7.30.5
7.78.2
Auto4.4
Teleop1.9
End0.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
13%Auto oddsMissed43%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
23%Barge oddsMissed29%Barge oddsMissed