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Red129
590131.0
836227.4
296047.8
Blue126
485414.9
835228.9
661560.9
38%Model gave it62%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions10510990100120130140129126

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+15
Teleop+19
+3Endgame
+3Fouls
AutonomousBlue +15
9Leave6
2Coral scored#6
10Coral points28
19Total auto34
TeleoperatedBlue +4
12Coral scored#19
44Coral points68
3Processor algae#1
6Net algae#4
18Processor points6
24Net points16
42Algae points22
86Total teleop90
Reef
6L4#11
5L3#6
2L2#4
1L1 · trough#4
23Game pieces#30
BargeRed +22
24Cage & park2
24Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +3
0Foul points0
129Total score126

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
47.81.3
41.242.5
Auto7.7
Teleop31.3
End8.8
blue by 13.1
60.91.0
57.158.1
Auto12.8
Teleop46.2
End2.0
Second
5901
#24
31.01.3
28.429.8
Auto2.3
Teleop23.9
End4.8
red by 2.1
8352
#14
28.91.0
28.429.3
Auto5.7
Teleop21.8
End1.3
Third
8362
#19
27.41.3
25.626.9
Auto7.4
Teleop17.5
End2.5
red by 12.5
4854
#34
14.91.0
11.712.7
Auto4.4
Teleop9.2
End1.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
85%Auto oddsEarned68%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
58%Barge oddsEarned31%Barge oddsMissed