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Red16
43905.3
587821.9
Blue44
691413.2
653218.3
48546.0
62%Model gave it38%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions3936203050601644

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
Teleop+22
Endgame+26
Fouls+28
AutonomousBlue +3
6Leave6
0Coral scored#1
0Coral points3
6Total auto9
TeleoperatedBlue +19
2Coral scored#5
8Coral points17
0Processor algae#1
0Net algae#1
0Processor points6
0Net points4
0Algae points10
8Total teleop27
Reef
1L4#2
1L3#1
0L2#2
0L1 · trough#1
2Game pieces#8
BargeBlue +4
2Cage & park6
2Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +28
0Foul points2
16Total score44

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
21.91.7
16.815.1
Auto3.8
Teleop17.1
End1.0
red by 3.7
18.30.0
13.313.3
Auto4.9
Teleop10.6
End2.7
Second
9.42.8
10.67.9
Auto1.6
Teleop6.0
End1.8
blue by 3.8
6914
#15
13.20.0
13.313.3
Auto3.0
Teleop9.1
End1.2
Third
4390
#33
5.32.8
7.54.7
Auto2.6
Teleop2.1
End0.6
blue by 0.6
4854
#28
6.00.0
6.56.5
Auto2.7
Teleop1.7
End1.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
24%Auto oddsMissed9%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
19%Barge oddsMissed27%Barge oddsMissed