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Red56
36196.7
97519.7
267316.4
Blue38
43905.3
485119.7
25916.6
55%Model gave it45%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions373302060801005638

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+6Teleop
+6Endgame
+18Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
6Leave6
1Coral scored#0
3Coral points0
9Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +3
6Coral scored#6
23Coral points20
0Processor algae#0
2Net algae#2
0Processor points0
8Net points8
8Algae points8
31Total teleop28
Reef
2L4#2
1L3#2
3L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
9Game pieces#8
Bargelevel
4Cage & park4
4Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +18
12Foul points0
56Total score38

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2673
#13
16.40.5
16.116.6
Auto3.2
Teleop12.0
End1.2
blue by 3.3
4851
#18
19.70.2
18.718.9
Auto3.5
Teleop14.5
End1.6
Second
9751
#26
9.70.5
9.29.7
Auto2.9
Teleop5.1
End1.7
red by 3.1
2591
#39
6.60.2
6.46.6
Auto1.9
Teleop4.1
End0.6
Third
3619
#32
6.70.5
6.26.7
Auto1.8
Teleop3.5
End1.4
red by 1.3
4390
#33
5.30.2
5.25.3
Auto2.6
Teleop2.1
End0.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
16%Auto oddsMissed26%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
18%Barge oddsEarned20%Barge oddsMissed