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Red114
663730.8
548617.0
439164.9
Blue40
483512.0
656924.5
1062211.9
74%Model gave it26%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions956505015011440

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+10Auto
+56Teleop
+68Endgame
+74Fouls
AutonomousRed +10
6Leave6
2Coral scored#0
10Coral points0
16Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +46
14Coral scored#4
52Coral points16
2Processor algae#1
3Net algae#2
12Processor points6
12Net points8
24Algae points14
76Total teleop30
Reef
6L4#1
4L3#1
3L2#1
3L1 · trough#1
21Game pieces#7
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +74
6Foul points0
114Total score40

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
64.91.6
41.543.1
Auto11.9
Teleop45.8
End7.2
red by 40.4
6569
#33
24.53.4
25.522.1
Auto3.5
Teleop18.8
End2.3
Second
30.81.6
19.321.0
Auto7.1
Teleop23.2
End0.4
red by 18.8
4835
#21
12.03.4
14.811.4
Auto2.6
Teleop7.8
End1.7
Third
5486
#16
17.01.6
20.622.2
Auto3.5
Teleop10.9
End2.7
red by 5.1
11.93.4
19.816.4
Auto2.3
Teleop7.6
End2.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
64%Auto oddsEarned53%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
43%Barge oddsEarned26%Barge oddsMissed