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Red43
437525.8
918815.0
663730.8
Blue23
611312.8
776827.5
96748.8
42%Model gave it58%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions71754060801004323

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+10Auto
+12Teleop
+10Endgame
+20Fouls
AutonomousRed +10
3Leave6
3Coral scored#1
16Coral points3
19Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +2
3Coral scored#2
12Coral points6
0Processor algae#0
0Net algae#1
0Processor points0
0Net points4
0Algae points4
12Total teleop10
Reef
2L4#1
2L3#1
1L2#1
1L1 · trough#0
6Game pieces#4
BargeBlue +2
0Cage & park2
0Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +20
12Foul points2
43Total score23

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
30.83.8
23.219.3
Auto7.1
Teleop23.2
End0.4
red by 3.3
27.54.9
24.419.5
Auto3.2
Teleop21.2
End3.1
Second
25.83.8
22.418.6
Auto6.2
Teleop17.8
End1.8
red by 13.0
6113
#30
12.84.9
20.115.2
Auto4.7
Teleop6.0
End2.1
Third
9188
#23
15.03.8
16.712.9
Auto5.1
Teleop8.4
End1.5
red by 6.2
9674
#38
8.84.9
20.615.7
Auto1.8
Teleop6.1
End0.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
42%Auto oddsEarned44%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
34%Barge oddsMissed35%Barge oddsMissed