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Red50
118835.6
967916.5
505012.7
Blue59
549819.7
828025.0
564211.4
58%Model gave it42%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions54490204060801005059

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+4
Teleop+25
Endgame+25
Fouls+9
AutonomousBlue +4
9Leave6
1Coral scored#2
3Coral points10
12Total auto16
TeleoperatedBlue +21
3Coral scored#8
12Coral points29
1Processor algae#1
0Net algae#1
6Processor points6
0Net points4
6Algae points10
18Total teleop39
Reef
2L4#2
1L3#4
1L2#3
0L1 · trough#1
5Game pieces#12
Bargelevel
2Cage & park2
2Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +9
18Foul points2
50Total score59

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1188
#12
35.61.8
18.616.8
Auto4.7
Teleop28.7
End2.2
red by 10.6
8280
#20
25.01.5
11.412.9
Auto7.2
Teleop15.7
End2.1
Second
9679
#16
16.51.8
9.37.5
Auto5.8
Teleop7.0
End3.7
blue by 3.2
5498
#32
19.71.5
18.520.0
Auto5.1
Teleop13.7
End0.8
Third
5050
#36
12.71.8
20.318.5
Auto2.5
Teleop9.4
End0.8
red by 1.2
5642
#37
11.41.5
13.615.1
Auto1.7
Teleop7.6
End2.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
32%Auto oddsEarned26%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
39%Barge oddsEarned24%Barge oddsMissed