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Red61
1028510.2
543635.0
656616.7
Blue45
967916.5
549819.7
65678.2
85%Model gave it15%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions603502040801006145

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+2Teleop
+12Endgame
+16Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
0Leave0
4Coral scored#2
19Coral points12
19Total auto12
TeleoperatedBlue +5
3Coral scored#4
10Coral points13
0Processor algae#1
1Net algae#0
0Processor points6
4Net points0
4Algae points6
14Total teleop19
Reef
2L4#2
2L3#2
2L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
8Game pieces#7
BargeRed +10
16Cage & park6
16Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +16
12Foul points8
61Total score45

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5436
#13
35.01.0
32.631.6
Auto7.5
Teleop19.5
End8.1
red by 15.4
5498
#32
19.70.3
15.215.5
Auto5.1
Teleop13.7
End0.8
Second
6566
#19
16.71.0
10.29.2
Auto3.2
Teleop10.1
End3.5
red by 0.3
9679
#16
16.50.3
11.211.5
Auto5.8
Teleop7.0
End3.7
Third
10.21.0
9.18.2
Auto4.0
Teleop5.4
End0.9
red by 2.0
6567
#33
8.20.3
7.98.2
Auto2.6
Teleop3.8
End1.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
57%Auto oddsEarned51%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
46%Barge oddsEarned22%Barge oddsEarned