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Red107
30232.7
776950.1
65678.2
Blue74
828025.0
914810.5
118835.6
73%Model gave it27%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions937202040608010012014016010774

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+25Teleop
+35Endgame
+33Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
9Leave0
1Coral scored#2
6Coral points12
15Total auto12
TeleoperatedRed +22
15Coral scored#11
54Coral points40
2Processor algae#0
3Net algae#4
12Processor points0
12Net points16
24Algae points16
78Total teleop56
Reef
6L4#4
4L3#3
4L2#3
2L1 · trough#3
21Game pieces#17
BargeRed +10
14Cage & park4
14Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +33
0Foul points2
107Total score74

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
50.12.1
46.648.7
Auto8.0
Teleop33.8
End8.3
red by 14.5
1188
#12
35.60.5
32.432.9
Auto4.7
Teleop28.7
End2.2
Second
302
#14
32.72.1
28.931.0
Auto7.5
Teleop24.3
End0.9
red by 7.8
8280
#20
25.00.5
22.222.7
Auto7.2
Teleop15.7
End2.1
Third
6567
#33
8.22.1
5.97.9
Auto2.6
Teleop3.8
End1.9
blue by 2.2
9148
#40
10.50.5
11.812.3
Auto2.2
Teleop7.2
End1.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
86%Auto oddsEarned65%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
36%Barge oddsEarned19%Barge oddsMissed