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Red42
828025.0
341433.8
1028510.2
Blue20
914810.5
785611.5
285116.9
73%Model gave it27%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions72582040801001204220

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
0Auto0
+14Teleop
+16Endgame
+22Fouls
Autonomouslevel
3Leave3
1Coral scored#1
3Coral points3
6Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +14
4Coral scored#2
16Coral points6
0Processor algae#0
1Net algae#0
0Processor points0
4Net points0
4Algae points0
20Total teleop6
Reef
2L4#1
1L3#1
1L2#1
1L1 · trough#0
6Game pieces#3
BargeRed +2
4Cage & park2
4Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +22
12Foul points6
42Total score20

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
33.83.6
33.529.9
Auto9.0
Teleop21.5
End3.2
red by 16.9
2851
#24
16.94.4
25.320.9
Auto3.9
Teleop11.7
End1.4
Second
8280
#20
25.03.6
15.011.4
Auto7.2
Teleop15.7
End2.1
red by 13.5
7856
#27
11.54.4
14.19.7
Auto5.9
Teleop4.4
End1.2
Third
10.23.6
13.710.1
Auto4.0
Teleop5.4
End0.9
blue by 0.2
9148
#40
10.54.4
13.99.6
Auto2.2
Teleop7.2
End1.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
44%Auto oddsMissed28%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
37%Barge oddsEarned23%Barge oddsMissed