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Red226
30264.1
546088.2
364122.7
Blue148
54845.5
481031.7
170179.2
65%Model gave it35%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions188173100150200250226148

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+31Auto
+66Teleop
+76Endgame
+78Fouls
AutonomousRed +31
3Leave6
12Coral scored#5
58Coral points24
61Total auto30
TeleoperatedRed +35
27Coral scored#21
97Coral points76
3Processor algae#2
8Net algae#6
18Processor points12
32Net points24
50Algae points36
147Total teleop112
Reef
9L4#10
15L3#6
8L2#6
7L1 · trough#4
50Game pieces#34
BargeRed +10
16Cage & park6
16Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +78
2Foul points0
226Total score148

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
88.23.1
86.289.3
Auto20.1
Teleop59.6
End8.6
red by 9.0
1701
#17
79.21.5
77.676.1
Auto20.2
Teleop51.0
End8.0
Second
302
#2
64.13.1
60.163.2
Auto18.3
Teleop41.8
End4.0
red by 18.7
548
#22
45.51.5
48.046.6
Auto7.5
Teleop33.1
End4.9
Third
3641
#13
22.73.1
17.120.2
Auto4.2
Teleop15.3
End3.2
blue by 9.0
4810
#15
31.71.5
30.729.2
Auto4.9
Teleop25.6
End1.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
84%Auto oddsEarned70%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
53%Coral oddsEarned23%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
57%Barge oddsEarned45%Barge oddsMissed