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Red107
778423.2
495628.4
612041.6
Blue103
1060640.4
364124.8
1034927.0
39%Model gave it61%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions93108050150200107103

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+2Teleop
+2Endgame
+4Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
9Leave3
1Coral scored#1
7Coral points6
16Total auto9
TeleoperatedBlue +5
14Coral scored#15
51Coral points54
2Processor algae#1
3Net algae#5
12Processor points6
12Net points20
24Algae points26
75Total teleop80
Reef
6L4#6
3L3#3
4L2#3
2L1 · trough#4
20Game pieces#22
Bargelevel
14Cage & park14
14Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +4
2Foul points0
107Total score103

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
41.60.8
34.535.3
Auto9.7
Teleop24.6
End7.3
red by 1.2
40.40.1
41.141.0
Auto5.8
Teleop25.6
End9.1
Second
28.40.8
26.026.7
Auto5.9
Teleop17.8
End4.6
red by 1.4
27.00.1
26.726.6
Auto5.6
Teleop21.0
End0.3
Third
7784
#27
23.20.8
21.922.7
Auto3.1
Teleop17.2
End2.9
blue by 1.6
3641
#12
24.80.1
25.125.1
Auto3.9
Teleop17.7
End3.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
82%Auto oddsEarned96%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
8%Coral oddsMissed22%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
67%Barge oddsEarned77%Barge oddsEarned