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Red114
608144.6
364124.8
24555.8
Blue100
535257.0
132217.1
5149.8
45%Model gave it55%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions142149050100200250300114100

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+7
+24Teleop
+10Endgame
+14Fouls
AutonomousBlue +7
6Leave3
5Coral scored#7
24Coral points34
30Total auto37
TeleoperatedRed +31
13Coral scored#9
46Coral points33
2Processor algae#1
5Net algae#2
12Processor points6
20Net points8
32Algae points14
78Total teleop47
Reef
6L4#6
4L3#4
4L2#4
4L1 · trough#2
25Game pieces#19
BargeBlue +14
2Cage & park16
2Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +14
4Foul points0
114Total score100

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
245
#11
55.81.2
58.957.7
Auto10.7
Teleop38.2
End6.9
blue by 1.1
5352
#14
57.02.0
61.759.7
Auto18.0
Teleop31.5
End7.5
Second
44.61.2
46.945.7
Auto6.9
Teleop32.0
End5.8
blue by 5.2
51
#5
49.82.0
46.044.0
Auto9.2
Teleop29.6
End11.1
Third
3641
#12
24.81.2
22.721.5
Auto3.9
Teleop17.7
End3.2
red by 7.6
1322
#31
17.12.0
22.320.3
Auto5.3
Teleop8.9
End3.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
81%Auto oddsEarned85%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
17%Coral oddsMissed18%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
80%Barge oddsMissed93%Barge oddsEarned