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Red178
150647.1
721142.9
612041.6
Blue150
608144.6
50336.4
353845.4
58%Model gave it42%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions139138130150160170178150

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+22
+36Teleop
+28Endgame
+28Fouls
AutonomousBlue +22
0Leave9
6Coral scored#8
29Coral points42
29Total auto51
TeleoperatedRed +58
22Coral scored#12
79Coral points43
5Processor algae#2
6Net algae#5
30Processor points12
24Net points20
54Algae points32
133Total teleop75
Reef
11L4#7
5L3#7
7L2#4
5L1 · trough#2
39Game pieces#27
BargeBlue +8
16Cage & park24
16Total endgame24
Penalties & totalRed +28
0Foul points0
178Total score150

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1506
#26
47.11.1
45.546.6
Auto16.9
Teleop23.2
End7.0
red by 1.7
3538
#23
45.40.5
44.945.4
Auto14.6
Teleop28.8
End2.0
Second
7211
#16
42.91.1
41.242.3
Auto8.8
Teleop25.1
End9.0
blue by 1.8
44.60.5
44.244.6
Auto6.9
Teleop32.0
End5.8
Third
41.61.1
40.041.0
Auto9.7
Teleop24.6
End7.3
red by 5.2
503
#18
36.40.5
35.936.4
Auto9.8
Teleop17.9
End8.7