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Red289
170176.8
776983.2
439190.3
Blue142
50338.9
341469.9
283276.7
98%Model gave it2%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions281186100150200250300350289142

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+35Auto
+143Teleop
+153Endgame
+147Fouls
AutonomousRed +35
0Leave9
12Coral scored#3
58Coral points14
58Total auto23
TeleoperatedRed +108
35Coral scored#18
125Coral points63
5Processor algae#2
10Net algae#3
30Processor points12
40Net points12
70Algae points24
195Total teleop87
Reef
23L4#8
10L3#5
8L2#5
6L1 · trough#3
62Game pieces#26
BargeRed +10
36Cage & park26
36Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +147
0Foul points6
289Total score142

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
90.31.5
91.593.1
Auto16.6
Teleop63.6
End10.1
red by 13.7
76.73.4
73.970.4
Auto14.7
Teleop53.1
End8.8
Second
83.21.5
84.485.9
Auto16.5
Teleop56.0
End10.6
red by 13.3
69.93.4
67.163.7
Auto17.3
Teleop44.8
End7.7
Third
76.81.5
78.079.5
Auto20.4
Teleop47.4
End8.9
red by 37.9
503
#5
38.93.4
36.132.6
Auto9.9
Teleop20.1
End8.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
87%Auto oddsMissed54%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
53%Coral oddsMissed32%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
75%Barge oddsMissed50%Barge oddsMissed