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Red242
546090.5
168442.0
233788.1
Blue257
276784.7
213784.7
3383.5
19%Model gave it81%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions229272150200250300350242257

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
0Auto0
Teleop+25
Endgame+15
Fouls+15
Autonomouslevel
6Leave9
10Coral scored#10
52Coral points49
58Total auto58
TeleoperatedBlue +25
22Coral scored#29
80Coral points103
5Processor algae#6
12Net algae#11
30Processor points36
48Net points44
78Algae points80
158Total teleop183
Reef
13L4#16
12L3#9
4L2#10
3L1 · trough#4
49Game pieces#56
BargeRed +10
26Cage & park16
26Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +15
0Foul points0
242Total score257

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
90.51.0
90.891.8
Auto21.1
Teleop60.8
End8.6
red by 5.8
84.70.1
83.683.7
Auto17.1
Teleop55.0
End12.7
Second
88.11.0
88.489.4
Auto21.7
Teleop58.0
End8.4
red by 3.5
84.70.1
83.583.6
Auto15.1
Teleop60.2
End9.4
Third
42.01.0
42.243.3
Auto6.2
Teleop32.5
End3.3
blue by 41.5
33
#1
83.50.1
82.482.5
Auto18.5
Teleop54.4
End10.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
53%Auto oddsMissed88%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
78%Coral oddsMissed41%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
38%Barge oddsMissed55%Barge oddsMissed