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Red254
170176.8
776983.2
439190.3
Blue257
546090.5
168442.0
233788.1
84%Model gave it16%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions295250150200350254257

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+5Teleop
Endgame+5
Fouls+3
AutonomousRed +7
6Leave6
10Coral scored#9
52Coral points45
58Total auto51
TeleoperatedBlue +2
34Coral scored#36
122Coral points128
3Processor algae#3
7Net algae#6
18Processor points18
28Net points24
46Algae points42
168Total teleop170
Reef
20L4#21
7L3#7
9L2#8
8L1 · trough#9
54Game pieces#54
BargeBlue +10
26Cage & park36
26Total endgame36
Penalties & totalBlue +3
2Foul points0
254Total score257

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
90.30.3
90.690.3
Auto16.6
Teleop63.6
End10.1
blue by 0.2
90.50.5
91.391.7
Auto21.1
Teleop60.8
End8.6
Second
83.20.3
83.583.2
Auto16.5
Teleop56.0
End10.6
blue by 5.0
88.10.5
88.989.4
Auto21.7
Teleop58.0
End8.4
Third
76.80.3
77.176.8
Auto20.4
Teleop47.4
End8.9
red by 34.8
42.00.5
42.843.2
Auto6.2
Teleop32.5
End3.3